Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetMUN

Shaw

DEF · £4.3m · Gameweek 7

Official FPL feed at forecast capture: Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing (status: d)

Model start prior (before lineup constraints): 0.62. The FPL percentage concerns playing. The model start prior is a separate estimate.

1.83xPts0.43pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
4231.82.11.82.1
GW3 4 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 3 points played · GW7 1.8 projected · GW8 2.1 projected · GW9 1.8 projected · GW10 2.1 projected
GW35678910
LEEBOUCHEAVL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank196thcaptain EV3.67owned6.7%season12 ptspts/£m so far2.79
attack 0.9clean sheet 0.6defence 0.2bonus 0.2= 1.8 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 40%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (40% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, on our bench
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.83
Captain EV3.67
Top 15% of sims, average7.14
Projected pts/£m0.426
Expected bonus (per match)0.16
DefCon points (per match)0.21
P(DefCon threshold)0.107
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.55
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.62
Price£4.3m
Ownership6.7%
xPts rank / ownership rank196 / 56
Season points (minutes)12 (425′)
Realized pts/£m2.79
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe own him, on our bench

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Shaw. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the bench of our squad and the bench of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/423.json.