Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier S · PremiumMUN

B.Fernandes

MID · £11.9m · Gameweek 7
5.86xPts0.49pts/£m
floor 2 · ceiling 13
2215.96.45.86.5
GW4 2 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 5.9 projected · GW8 6.4 projected · GW9 5.8 projected · GW10 6.5 projected
GW45678910
LEEBOUCHEAVL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank6thcaptain EV11.72owned34.6%season32 ptspts/£m so far2.69
attack 4.6clean sheet 0.2defence 0.1bonus 0.9= 5.9 xPts
floor 2most likely 2 33%ceiling 13
10,000 simulations: floor 2, most likely 2 (33% of simulations), ceiling 13 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)5.86
Captain EV11.72
Top 15% of sims, average14.59
Projected pts/£m0.492
Expected bonus (per match)0.95
DefCon points (per match)0.05
P(DefCon threshold)0.024
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.22
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£11.9m
Ownership34.6%
xPts rank / ownership rank6 / 8
Season points (minutes)32 (540′)
Realized pts/£m2.69
Model tierS · Premium
Our positionwe own him, in our XI

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: B.Fernandes. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of our squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/426.json.