Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier S · MidMUN

Mbeumo

MID · £7.9m · Gameweek 7
4.81xPts0.61pts/£m
floor 2 · ceiling 10
2284.85.14.85.3
GW4 2 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 8 points played · GW7 4.8 projected · GW8 5.1 projected · GW9 4.8 projected · GW10 5.3 projected
GW45678910
LEEBOUCHEAVL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank16thcaptain EV9.61owned19.9%season33 ptspts/£m so far4.18
attack 3.9clean sheet 0.2defence 0.0bonus 0.6= 4.8 xPts
floor 2most likely 2 40%ceiling 10
10,000 simulations: floor 2, most likely 2 (40% of simulations), ceiling 10 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
the consensus squad owns him, we do not
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)4.81
Captain EV9.61
Top 15% of sims, average12.72
Projected pts/£m0.609
Expected bonus (per match)0.62
DefCon points (per match)0.02
P(DefCon threshold)0.008
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.22
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£7.9m
Ownership19.9%
xPts rank / ownership rank16 / 17
Season points (minutes)33 (540′)
Realized pts/£m4.18
Model tierS · Mid
Our positionthe consensus squad owns him, we do not

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: Mbeumo. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the XI of the consensus squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/427.json.