Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetTOT

Tonali

MID · £5.3m · Gameweek 7
3.66xPts0.69pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 8
3273.73.03.23.1
GW4 3 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 7 points played · GW7 3.7 projected · GW8 3.0 projected · GW9 3.2 projected · GW10 3.1 projected
GW45678910
COVCHECRYLEE
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank60thcaptain EV7.31owned1.8%season21 ptspts/£m so far3.96
attack 2.8clean sheet 0.4defence 0.2bonus 0.2= 3.7 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 34%ceiling 8
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (34% of simulations), ceiling 8 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.66
Captain EV7.31
Top 15% of sims, average9.11
Projected pts/£m0.691
Expected bonus (per match)0.25
DefCon points (per match)0.19
P(DefCon threshold)0.096
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.39
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£5.3m
Ownership1.8%
xPts rank / ownership rank60 / 132
Season points (minutes)21 (517′)
Realized pts/£m3.96
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/455.json.