Player card · Gameweek 2
Tier A · MidNFO

Igor Jesus

FWD · £6.0m · Gameweek 2
2.51xPts this gameweek
GW1 2.89 · GW2 2.58 · GW3 3.01 · GW4 2.53 · GW5 3.52 · GW6 2.92GW1GW6
ceiling 8.88captain EV 5.02owned 4.0%
season 2 ptsrealized 0.33 pts/£mown vs xPts rank -24
LIV (A)GW2TOT (H)GW3AVL (A)GW4COV (H)GW5
buy · tier A · Mid
🔒Premium — coming soon: full distribution · your-team fit
eBy the evmax model · 25 August 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 2
Expected points (xPts)2.51
Captain EV5.02
Ceiling (best 15% of sims)8.88
Projected pts/£m0.419
Expected bonus (per match)0.44
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.002
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start probability0.74
Price£6.0m
Ownership4.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank105 / 81
Season points (minutes)2 (2293′)
Realized pts/£m0.33
VerdictA · Mid · buy

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/players/491.json.