Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidTOT

Senesi

DEF · £5.8m · Gameweek 7
1.98xPts0.34pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
322.01.41.61.51.6
GW1 3 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 2.0 projected · GW8 1.4 projected · GW9 1.6 projected · GW10 1.5 projected · GW11 1.6 projected
GW167891011
COVCHECRYLEEIPS
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank186thcaptain EV3.96owned3.3%season5 pts
attack 1.0clean sheet 0.6defence 0.2bonus 0.2= 2.0 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 54%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (54% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)1.98
Captain EV3.96
Top 15% of sims, average8.49
Projected pts/£m0.341
Expected bonus (per match)0.19
DefCon points (per match)0.21
P(DefCon threshold)0.106
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.57
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.37
Price£5.8m
Ownership3.3%
xPts rank / ownership rank186 / 99
Season points (minutes)5 (178′)
Realized pts/£m0.86
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/498.json.