Player card · Gameweek 2
Tier S · MidTOT

Senesi

DEF · £6.0m · Gameweek 2
4.56xPts this gameweek
GW1 4.35 · GW2 4.88 · GW3 4.40 · GW4 4.69 · GW5 4.60 · GW6 4.13GW1GW6
ceiling 11.55captain EV 9.12owned 8.0%
season 3 ptsrealized 0.50 pts/£mown vs xPts rank +40
NEW (H)GW2NFO (A)GW3EVE (H)GW4AVL (H)GW5
buy · tier S · Mid
🔒Premium — coming soon: full distribution · your-team fit
eBy the evmax model · 25 August 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 2
Expected points (xPts)4.56
Captain EV9.12
Ceiling (best 15% of sims)11.55
Projected pts/£m0.760
Expected bonus (per match)0.33
DefCon points (per match)1.07
P(DefCon threshold)0.536
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.93
Start probability0.97
Price£6.0m
Ownership8.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank12 / 52
Season points (minutes)3 (3288′)
Realized pts/£m0.50
VerdictS · Mid · buy

Research notes on file: Senesi. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in our model squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/players/498.json.