Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · MidNEW

Fernandez-Pardo

FWD · £6.0m · Gameweek 7
2.18xPts0.36pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 7
1222.22.12.22.0
GW4 1 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 2.2 projected · GW8 2.1 projected · GW9 2.2 projected · GW10 2.0 projected
GW45678910
AVLCRYEVEFUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank171stcaptain EV4.35owned0.1%season6 ptspts/£m so far1.00
attack 1.8bonus 0.4= 2.2 xPts
floor 0most likely 2 35%ceiling 7
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 2 (35% of simulations), ceiling 7 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.18
Captain EV4.35
Top 15% of sims, average8.24
Projected pts/£m0.363
Expected bonus (per match)0.42
DefCon points (per match)0.00
P(DefCon threshold)0.000
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.00
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.66
Price£6.0m
Ownership0.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank171 / 414
Season points (minutes)6 (247′)
Realized pts/£m1.00
Model tierB · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/634.json.