Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetBOU

Smith

DEF · £4.5m · Gameweek 7
3.04xPts0.68pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 6
0203.02.42.72.8
GW4 0 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 0 points played · GW7 3.0 projected · GW8 2.4 projected · GW9 2.7 projected · GW10 2.8 projected
GW45678910
SUNMUNLEEIPS
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank102ndcaptain EV6.07owned0.1%season4 ptspts/£m so far0.89
attack 1.6clean sheet 1.4defence 0.1bonus 0.0= 3.0 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 28%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (28% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.04
Captain EV6.07
Top 15% of sims, average6.61
Projected pts/£m0.676
Expected bonus (per match)0.04
DefCon points (per match)0.05
P(DefCon threshold)0.023
Clean-sheet points (per match)1.35
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£4.5m
Ownership0.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank102 / 479
Season points (minutes)4 (505′)
Realized pts/£m0.89
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/64.json.