Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetCRY

Timber

MID · £5.0m · Gameweek 7
2.46xPts0.49pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 5
4372.52.72.62.8
GW4 4 points played · GW5 3 points played · GW6 7 points played · GW7 2.5 projected · GW8 2.7 projected · GW9 2.6 projected · GW10 2.8 projected
GW45678910
BHANEWTOTLIV
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank146thcaptain EV4.92owned0.0%season16 ptspts/£m so far3.20
attack 1.9clean sheet 0.1defence 0.3bonus 0.1= 2.5 xPts
floor 0most likely 2 41%ceiling 5
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 2 (41% of simulations), ceiling 5 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.46
Captain EV4.92
Top 15% of sims, average6.86
Projected pts/£m0.492
Expected bonus (per match)0.14
DefCon points (per match)0.29
P(DefCon threshold)0.146
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.12
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.80
Price£5.0m
Ownership0.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank146 / 654
Season points (minutes)16 (343′)
Realized pts/£m3.20
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/644.json.