Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetARS

Lewis-Skelly

MID · £5.4m · Gameweek 7
2.28xPts0.42pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 5
2122.32.32.12.2
GW3 2 points played · GW4 1 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 2.3 projected · GW8 2.3 projected · GW9 2.1 projected · GW10 2.2 projected
GW34678910
NFOEVELIVHUL
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank165thcaptain EV4.56owned0.5%season11 ptspts/£m so far2.04
attack 1.8clean sheet 0.3defence 0.0bonus 0.1= 2.3 xPts
floor 0most likely 2 33%ceiling 5
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 2 (33% of simulations), ceiling 5 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.28
Captain EV4.56
Top 15% of sims, average5.74
Projected pts/£m0.422
Expected bonus (per match)0.07
DefCon points (per match)0.03
P(DefCon threshold)0.017
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.34
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.77
Price£5.4m
Ownership0.5%
xPts rank / ownership rank165 / 250
Season points (minutes)11 (333′)
Realized pts/£m2.04
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/7.json.