Player card · Gameweek 2
Tier S · MidARS
Calafiori
4.15xPts this gameweek
ceiling 11.30captain EV 8.29owned 41.1%
season 9 ptsrealized 1.64 pts/£mown vs xPts rank -14
AVL (A)GW2CHE (H)GW3SUN (A)GW4BHA (A)GW5
buy · tier S · Mid
🔒Premium — coming soon: full distribution · your-team fit
The data
| Metric | Gameweek 2 |
|---|---|
| Expected points (xPts) | 4.15 |
| Captain EV | 8.29 |
| Ceiling (best 15% of sims) | 11.30 |
| Projected pts/£m | 0.754 |
| Expected bonus (per match) | 0.34 |
| DefCon points (per match) | 0.06 |
| P(DefCon threshold) | 0.029 |
| Clean-sheet points (per match) | 1.41 |
| Start probability | 0.58 |
| Price | £5.5m |
| Ownership | 41.1% |
| xPts rank / ownership rank | 19 / 5 |
| Season points (minutes) | 9 (1697′) |
| Realized pts/£m | 1.64 |
| Verdict | S · Mid · buy |
Research notes on file: Calafiori. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.
Currently in the consensus XI.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/players/8.json.