Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetBRE

Ajer

DEF · £4.5m · Gameweek 7
3.32xPts0.74pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 8
1763.33.73.63.2
GW4 1 points played · GW5 7 points played · GW6 6 points played · GW7 3.3 projected · GW8 3.7 projected · GW9 3.6 projected · GW10 3.2 projected
GW45678910
LIVHULNFOBHA
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank83rdcaptain EV6.64owned3.8%season27 ptspts/£m so far6.00
attack 1.5clean sheet 0.9defence 0.7bonus 0.2= 3.3 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 22%ceiling 8
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (22% of simulations), ceiling 8 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.32
Captain EV6.64
Top 15% of sims, average8.56
Projected pts/£m0.738
Expected bonus (per match)0.17
DefCon points (per match)0.71
P(DefCon threshold)0.354
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.91
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.99
Price£4.5m
Ownership3.8%
xPts rank / ownership rank83 / 87
Season points (minutes)27 (540′)
Realized pts/£m6.00
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/87.json.