Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · MidBRE

Schade

MID · £6.2m · Gameweek 7

Official FPL feed at forecast capture: Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing (status: d)

Model start prior (before lineup constraints): 0.75. The FPL percentage concerns playing. The model start prior is a separate estimate.

3.21xPts0.52pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 9
15913.23.23.12.9
GW4 15 points played · GW5 9 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 3.2 projected · GW8 3.2 projected · GW9 3.1 projected · GW10 2.9 projected
GW45678910
LIVHULNFOBHA
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank89thcaptain EV6.42owned15.1%season40 ptspts/£m so far6.45
attack 2.5clean sheet 0.2defence 0.1bonus 0.5= 3.2 xPts
floor 0most likely 2 30%ceiling 9
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 2 (30% of simulations), ceiling 9 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)3.21
Captain EV6.42
Top 15% of sims, average10.77
Projected pts/£m0.518
Expected bonus (per match)0.46
DefCon points (per match)0.06
P(DefCon threshold)0.032
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.17
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.75
Price£6.2m
Ownership15.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank89 / 27
Season points (minutes)40 (498′)
Realized pts/£m6.45
Model tierA · Mid
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/94.json.