Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetCHE

Caicedo

MID · £5.3m · Gameweek 7
0.95xPts0.18pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 3
120.90.90.90.90.9
GW2 1 points played · GW6 2 points played · GW7 0.9 projected · GW8 0.9 projected · GW9 0.9 projected · GW10 0.9 projected · GW11 0.9 projected
GW267891011
EVETOTMUNSUNLEE
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank260thcaptain EV1.90owned1.0%season3 pts
attack 0.8clean sheet 0.1defence 0.1bonus 0.0= 0.9 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 60%ceiling 3
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (60% of simulations), ceiling 3 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)0.95
Captain EV1.90
Top 15% of sims, average4.07
Projected pts/£m0.179
Expected bonus (per match)0.04
DefCon points (per match)0.08
P(DefCon threshold)0.040
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.08
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.28
Price£5.3m
Ownership1.0%
xPts rank / ownership rank260 / 175
Season points (minutes)3 (84′)
Realized pts/£m0.57
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/159.json.