Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier A · BudgetNFO

N.Williams

DEF · £5.0m · Gameweek 7
2.62xPts0.52pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 7
2212.63.73.33.1
GW4 2 points played · GW5 2 points played · GW6 1 points played · GW7 2.6 projected · GW8 3.7 projected · GW9 3.3 projected · GW10 3.1 projected
GW45678910
ARSIPSBREMCI
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank134thcaptain EV5.24owned6.8%season20 ptspts/£m so far4.00
attack 1.6clean sheet 0.7defence 0.1bonus 0.2= 2.6 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 34%ceiling 7
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (34% of simulations), ceiling 7 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, on our bench
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.62
Captain EV5.24
Top 15% of sims, average8.32
Projected pts/£m0.524
Expected bonus (per match)0.24
DefCon points (per match)0.13
P(DefCon threshold)0.067
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.66
Start prior (before lineup constraints)1.00
Price£5.0m
Ownership6.8%
xPts rank / ownership rank134 / 55
Season points (minutes)20 (540′)
Realized pts/£m4.00
Model tierA · Budget
Our positionwe own him, on our bench

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

Research notes on file: N.Williams. Notes carry sourced minutes/rotation judgement that overrides the raw model.

Currently in the bench of our squad.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/469.json.