Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetLIV

Araujo

DEF · £5.4m · Gameweek 7
2.37xPts0.44pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
6702.42.52.32.7
GW4 6 points played · GW5 7 points played · GW6 0 points played · GW7 2.4 projected · GW8 2.5 projected · GW9 2.3 projected · GW10 2.7 projected
GW45678910
BREBHAARSCRY
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank155thcaptain EV4.75owned3.1%season22 ptspts/£m so far4.07
attack 1.3clean sheet 0.7defence 0.3bonus 0.1= 2.4 xPts
floor 0most likely 1 26%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 1 (26% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.37
Captain EV4.75
Top 15% of sims, average7.43
Projected pts/£m0.439
Expected bonus (per match)0.07
DefCon points (per match)0.30
P(DefCon threshold)0.148
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.68
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.79
Price£5.4m
Ownership3.1%
xPts rank / ownership rank155 / 102
Season points (minutes)22 (358′)
Realized pts/£m4.07
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/579.json.