Player card · Gameweek 7
Tier B · BudgetEVE

Maitland-Niles

DEF · £4.5m · Gameweek 7
2.08xPts0.46pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
6842.11.52.12.4
GW4 6 points played · GW5 8 points played · GW6 4 points played · GW7 2.1 projected · GW8 1.5 projected · GW9 2.1 projected · GW10 2.4 projected
GW45678910
CHEARSNEWCOV
played · projected · box colour = fixture difficulty, green easy to red hard · grey = not priced yet
model rank178thcaptain EV4.15owned1.5%season25 ptspts/£m so far5.56
attack 1.2clean sheet 0.6defence 0.1bonus 0.1= 2.1 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 35%ceiling 6
10,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (35% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
10,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
eBy the evmax model · 14 October 2026 · regenerated every gameweek

The data

MetricGameweek 7
Expected points (xPts)2.08
Captain EV4.15
Top 15% of sims, average7.50
Projected pts/£m0.462
Expected bonus (per match)0.12
DefCon points (per match)0.15
P(DefCon threshold)0.073
Clean-sheet points (per match)0.58
Start prior (before lineup constraints)0.66
Price£4.5m
Ownership1.5%
xPts rank / ownership rank178 / 144
Season points (minutes)25 (254′)
Realized pts/£m5.56
Model tierB · Budget
Our positionwe do not own him

The start prior is the input to lineup sampling, before one-goalkeeper and ten-outfield-player constraints; the resulting simulated start frequency can be lower. It is not a calibrated probability of starting. Label clarified 2026-10-13; archived values are unchanged.

No research notes on file for this player this gameweek — the numbers above are pure model output.

How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/players/649.json.