Two squads, picked before every deadline and graded after: one by a 50,000-run simulation, one by the crowd's template. Every number on this page is a projection you can check next week.
| Model XI | Consensus XI | Duel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW1live | 65.9proj | 60.7proj | 1–2 |
Official points once a gameweek is graded; the live row shows the frozen projection and points so far. Full ledger →
A 3-5-2 projecting 65.92 points with B.Fernandes captained — built on six-week horizon value, market-implied fixture strength, and one deliberate act of heresy.
B.Fernandes projects 17.7 points captained against Haaland's 15.61 — a 2.09-point edge for the man three in four managers will not pick.
No data available.
Seven expert sources, one mention-tally, the majority captain — 60.74 projected points of pure template.
Eleven players, 59.17 projected points, no loyalty to anything but this week's fixtures.
Arsenal's 56.8% shutout probability towers over the week — no other defence clears 50%.
Four of the six best defensive picks this week face Coventry — the question is only which Arsenal asset to buy.
0.931 points per million at £5.5m: no player at any price converts budget into projection better.
A 59.8% chance of banking the defensive-contribution bonus makes the City midfielder this week's most reliable hidden floor.
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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.