Egan is the gameweek 4 DefCon banker
He clears the 10-action threshold in 44% of simulations.
Egan (HUL) records at least 10 defensive actions in 44% of our simulations, worth 0.89 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.
Muharemović is next at 43% against a 10-action threshold.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egan HULDifferential | 44% | 0.89 | 1.93 | 4.1 | 6.3% |
| 2 | Muharemović LEEDifferential | 43% | 0.85 | 3.48 | 5.0 | 3.6% |
| 3 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 40% | 0.81 | 2.57 | 5.5 | 2.2% |
| 4 | Tarkowski EVE | 35% | 0.69 | 3.54 | 6.0 | 11.4% |
| 5 | Ajer BREDifferential | 34% | 0.68 | 3.03 | 4.5 | 4.7% |
| 6 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 33% | 0.67 | 4.71 | 6.0 | 8.1% |
| 7 | Milenković NFODifferential | 33% | 0.66 | 3.19 | 5.5 | 1.6% |
| 8 | Khalaili CRYDifferential | 33% | 0.66 | 3.57 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
| 9 | Richards CRYDifferential | 33% | 0.66 | 4.22 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 10 | Hall NEW | 31% | 0.61 | 3.77 | 5.1 | 12.6% |
| 11 | Wesley Fofana CHEDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 3.39 | 5.0 | 0.1% |
| 12 | Branthwaite EVEDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 2.85 | 5.5 | 1.9% |
| 13 | Justin LEEDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 3.43 | 4.5 | 1.5% |
| 14 | Bobby Thomas COVDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 2.94 | 4.0 | 8.9% |
| 15 | Silva BOUDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 3.06 | 5.0 | 0.4% |
| 16 | O'Shea IPSDifferential | 28% | 0.57 | 2.63 | 4.0 | 3.0% |
| 17 | Murillo NFODifferential | 27% | 0.54 | 3.20 | 5.5 | 1.6% |
| 18 | Ballard SUNDifferential | 27% | 0.54 | 2.79 | 4.9 | 3.3% |
| 19 | Diop IPS | 24% | 0.48 | 2.66 | 4.0 | 14.6% |
| 20 | Virgil LIV | 23% | 0.45 | 4.38 | 6.5 | 17.2% |
Bottom line
Egan is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 44% of simulations.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw4/defcon.json.