Fantasy Premier League · Gameweek 4
deadline Sat 12 Sep, 13:30 UK

Two squads, picked before every deadline and graded after: one by a 50,000-run simulation, one by the crowd's template. Every number on this page is a projection you can check next week.

GameweeksGW1GW2GW3GW4
Rate my team →
Model XIConsensus XIDuel
GW144proj 65.953proj 60.70–1
GW293proj 56.084proj 53.01–1
GW337proj 59.559proj 53.71–2
GW4live54.8proj3-4-3 · B.Fernandes (c)53.2proj3-4-3 · Haaland (c)1–2

Official points once a gameweek is graded; the live row shows the frozen projection and points so far. Full ledger →

Our picks this gameweek

The players we actually field, from the squad we publish and grade in public every week.

Tier S · MidLIV

Szoboszlai

MID · £7.0m · Gameweek 4
5.72xPts0.82pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 13
8436.05.24.54.8
GW1 8 points played · GW2 4 points played · GW3 3 points played · GW4 6.0 projected · GW5 5.2 projected · GW6 4.5 projected · GW7 4.8 projected
GW1234567
FULBOUMCIBRE
played · projected
model rank5thcaptain EV11.45owned38.4%season15 ptspts/£m so far2.14
points breakdown and spread
attack 4.3clean sheet 0.3defence 0.3bonus 0.8= 5.7 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 21%ceiling 13
50,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (21% of simulations), ceiling 13 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
full card →
Tier S · PremiumMUN

B.Fernandes

MID · £12.0m · Gameweek 4
5.43xPts0.45pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 13
22325.66.56.15.9
GW1 2 points played · GW2 23 points played · GW3 2 points played · GW4 5.6 projected · GW5 6.5 projected · GW6 6.1 projected · GW7 5.9 projected
GW1234567
MCIFULTOTLEE
played · projected
model rank6thcaptain EV10.85owned44.6%season27 ptspts/£m so far2.25
points breakdown and spread
attack 4.4clean sheet 0.2defence 0.1bonus 0.8= 5.4 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 30%ceiling 13
50,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (30% of simulations), ceiling 13 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
full card →
Tier S · MidBRE

Thiago

FWD · £7.9m · Gameweek 4
5.30xPts0.67pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 13
0225.55.55.55.3
GW1 0 points played · GW2 2 points played · GW3 2 points played · GW4 5.5 projected · GW5 5.5 projected · GW6 5.5 projected · GW7 5.3 projected
GW1234567
BOUCHEAVLLIV
played · projected
model rank7thcaptain EV10.61owned11.5%season4 ptspts/£m so far0.51
points breakdown and spread
attack 4.2defence 0.0bonus 1.1= 5.3 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 40%ceiling 13
50,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (40% of simulations), ceiling 13 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
full card →

Most transferred in this gameweek

Who the crowd is piling into, and what our model makes of each move.

Tier S · MidCHE

Rogers

MID · £7.6m · Gameweek 4
4.66xPts0.61pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 10
8564.73.53.63.4
GW1 8 points played · GW2 5 points played · GW3 6 points played · GW4 4.7 projected · GW5 3.5 projected · GW6 3.6 projected · GW7 3.4 projected
GW1234567
HULBREBOUEVE
played · projected
model rank16thcaptain EV9.31owned31.0%season19 ptspts/£m so far2.50
points breakdown and spread
attack 3.8clean sheet 0.4defence 0.1bonus 0.4= 4.7 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 24%ceiling 10
50,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (24% of simulations), ceiling 10 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
the consensus squad owns him, we do not
full card →

Crowd is buying. Model has him tier S, 16th by xPts this week.

Tier A · MidLIV

Gakpo

MID · £7.2m · Gameweek 4

Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing (status: d)

3.76xPts0.52pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 10
125113.73.32.93.1
GW1 12 points played · GW2 5 points played · GW3 11 points played · GW4 3.7 projected · GW5 3.3 projected · GW6 2.9 projected · GW7 3.1 projected
GW1234567
FULBOUMCIBRE
played · projected
model rank39thcaptain EV7.51owned13.6%season28 ptspts/£m so far3.89
points breakdown and spread
attack 2.8clean sheet 0.2defence 0.1bonus 0.6= 3.8 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 28%ceiling 10
50,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (28% of simulations), ceiling 10 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
full card →

Crowd is buying. Model has him tier A, 39th by xPts this week.

Tier S · PremiumCHE

Cole Palmer

MID · £9.7m · Gameweek 4
7.75xPts0.80pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 16
13717.85.45.55.1
GW1 13 points played · GW2 7 points played · GW3 1 points played · GW4 7.8 projected · GW5 5.4 projected · GW6 5.5 projected · GW7 5.1 projected
GW1234567
HULBREBOUEVE
played · projected
model rank1stcaptain EV15.50owned24.5%season21 ptspts/£m so far2.16
points breakdown and spread
attack 6.0clean sheet 0.4defence 0.1bonus 1.3= 7.8 xPts
floor 0most likely 2 13%ceiling 16
50,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 2 (13% of simulations), ceiling 16 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we do not own him
full card →

Crowd is buying. Model has him tier S, 1st by xPts this week.

Most transferred out this gameweek

Who is being dumped hardest. Where the model disagrees, it says so.

Tier S · PremiumMUN

B.Fernandes

MID · £12.0m · Gameweek 4
5.43xPts0.45pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 13
22325.66.56.15.9
GW1 2 points played · GW2 23 points played · GW3 2 points played · GW4 5.6 projected · GW5 6.5 projected · GW6 6.1 projected · GW7 5.9 projected
GW1234567
MCIFULTOTLEE
played · projected
model rank6thcaptain EV10.85owned44.6%season27 ptspts/£m so far2.25
points breakdown and spread
attack 4.4clean sheet 0.2defence 0.1bonus 0.8= 5.4 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 30%ceiling 13
50,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (30% of simulations), ceiling 13 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
full card →

Crowd is selling. Model still has him tier S, 6th.

Tier B · MidMCI

O'Reilly

DEF · £6.4m · Gameweek 4
1.98xPts0.31pts/£m
floor 0 · ceiling 6
222.03.01.92.62.2
GW1 2 points played · GW2 2 points played · GW4 2.0 projected · GW5 3.0 projected · GW6 1.9 projected · GW7 2.6 projected · GW8 2.2 projected
GW1245678
MUNSUNLIVIPSAVL
played · projected
model rank195thcaptain EV3.97owned14.0%season4 pts
points breakdown and spread
attack 1.3clean sheet 0.5defence 0.1bonus 0.1= 2.0 xPts
floor 0most likely 0 42%ceiling 6
50,000 simulations: floor 0, most likely 0 (42% of simulations), ceiling 6 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
the consensus squad owns him, we do not
full card →

Crowd is selling. Model has him tier B, 195th.

Tier S · MidLIV

Szoboszlai

MID · £7.0m · Gameweek 4
5.72xPts0.82pts/£m
floor 1 · ceiling 13
8436.05.24.54.8
GW1 8 points played · GW2 4 points played · GW3 3 points played · GW4 6.0 projected · GW5 5.2 projected · GW6 4.5 projected · GW7 4.8 projected
GW1234567
FULBOUMCIBRE
played · projected
model rank5thcaptain EV11.45owned38.4%season15 ptspts/£m so far2.14
points breakdown and spread
attack 4.3clean sheet 0.3defence 0.3bonus 0.8= 5.7 xPts
floor 1most likely 2 21%ceiling 13
50,000 simulations: floor 1, most likely 2 (21% of simulations), ceiling 13 points
50,000 simulations · floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile
we own him, in our XI
full card →

Crowd is selling. Model still has him tier S, 5th.

Fixture boxes under the dots: the next opponent, coloured by difficulty — green easy, red hard, dashed grey not priced yet.

Check your player — search all cards → · How we compare to the other models →

Featured · Our Squad

Our gameweek 4 squad: B.Fernandes captains a 3-4-3

The engine's own 15 — a 3-4-3 projecting 54.84 points with the captain doubled, picked on six-gameweek horizon value, not one-week form.

eBy the evmax model · 11 September 2026

Read the full analysis →

5.3ThiagoBRE4.2EvanilsonBOU5.0Calvert-LewinLEE5.4B.FernandesMUNC3.0NdiayeMCI5.0Gibbs-WhiteNFO5.7SzoboszlaiLIVV4.4VirgilLIV3.5TarkowskiEVE3.7N.WilliamsNFO4.3RayaARS3-4-3
Latest analysis
Captains

Cole Palmer is the gameweek 4 captain

11 September 2026

15.50 captain EV, 18.94 ceiling — the best armband in the model.

15.50Captain EV
Distributions

Gameweek 4 spreads: Cole Palmer hauls 35% of the time

11 September 2026

Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: Cole Palmer blanks in 29% of them and scores double figures in 35%.

15.50Captain EV
Consensus Squad

The consensus XI: the experts' gameweek 4 team

11 September 2026

A mention-tally across the expert consensus sources, assembled into a legal 15 — Haaland carries the majority armband.

53.22Projected XI, captain doubled
Wildcard

The gameweek 4 draft squad: 3-5-2

11 September 2026

A legal 15 for 98.4m, with an XI projecting 59.3 points.

7.75xPts
Ticker

Gameweek 4 fixture ticker: ARS lead the clean sheets

11 September 2026

ARS project 0.50 expected clean sheets against SUN (A).

0.50Clean sheets
Defenders

Gabriel leads the gameweek 4 defenders

11 September 2026

4.77 expected points, with 1.92 of it from clean sheets alone.

4.77xPts
Efficiency

De Cuyper is the best value in gameweek 4

11 September 2026

0.96 points per million at 4.8.

0.96Pts/m
Defcon

Egan is the gameweek 4 DefCon banker

11 September 2026

He clears the 10-action threshold in 44% of simulations.

44%P(DefCon)

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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.