Mbappé tops captain EV at 9.84 pts, ahead of Lionel Messi (9.64).
Two tight semifinals set up a coin-flip Round 7. Neither fixture leans attacking.
England rate highest for a clean sheet at 33% vs Argentina.
The England goalkeeper ranks first because his team is likely to advance—and replacement-level keepers are cheap.
The strongest starting XI is a 5-2-3 projecting 39.69 xPts, wrapped in a 99.2m legal 15.
Ezri Konsa leads defenders at 3.08 xPts, ahead of Dayot Upamecano (2.85).
Spain's winger projects 3.55 xPts with an 8.68 ceiling and ranks first among all Round 7 picks.
Argentina's goalkeeper delivers the highest points per million in the dataset, but the real value lies in tier-specific picks.
Lionel Messi is the top transfer target at 4.82 xPts from a blowout fixture.
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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.