Lionel Messi tops captain EV at 11.16 pts, ahead of Kane (10.90).
Four quarter-final ties split between blowout and balanced matchups. England favoured despite away status; France's clean-sheet odds stand out.
Argentina rate highest for a clean sheet at 45% vs Switzerland.
France's forward ranks second overall because his team is 76.5% likely to advance—and value over replacement matters more than raw points.
The strongest starting XI is a 4-3-3 projecting 47.97 xPts, wrapped in a 99.9m legal 15.
France's top-ranked defender projects 3.97 xPts with elite efficiency at 5.3m.
England's midfielder projects 3.84 xPts with an 8.88 ceiling — best floor-to-upside ratio in the pool.
Argentina's goalkeeper dominates efficiency metrics. Here are the best-value picks across every budget tier.
England's forward projects 5.45 xPts with a 7.95 ceiling and commands 40.6% ownership. Here's why he remains the safest premium play.
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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.