Our gameweek 2 squad: B.Fernandes captains a 3-4-3
The engine's own 15 — a 3-4-3 projecting 55.96 points with the captain doubled, picked on six-gameweek horizon value, not one-week form.
This is the team we actually field, and it stands or falls in public. The engine optimises expected points over a discounted six-gameweek horizon on market-implied scoring rates, so every pick is a horizon bet rather than a one-fixture spike. The XI lines up 3-4-3 and projects 48.71 points before the armband; with B.Fernandes doubled that becomes 55.96.
No Haaland, by conviction rather than oversight. At his price the model wants the budget spread across three lines, and we do not pay a premium for an ownership shield. If the crowd is right about him, the consensus XI on this site owns him and will collect the evidence.
Registered captain: B.Fernandes, with 14.51 projected points doubled. Registered vice: Szoboszlai, with 11.41 projected points doubled. The highest captain projection in this registered XI is B.Fernandes at 14.51. Registered roles and projection rankings are shown separately.
The bench, in order: 1. Sánchez, 2. Tarkowski, 3. Gibbs-White, 4. N.Williams. It is deliberately thin — the first name is the backup keeper, and the spend sits in the XI where the points are.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 3.68 | 7.29 | 7.35 | 0.61 |
| 2 | Virgil LIV | 4.97 | 10.80 | 9.93 | 0.76 |
| 3 | Senesi TOTDifferential | 3.09 | 9.55 | 6.19 | 0.52 |
| 4 | B.Fernandes MUN | 7.25 | 18.90 | 14.51 | 0.60 |
| 5 | Ndiaye EVE | 4.49 | 13.20 | 8.98 | 0.75 |
| 6 | E.Le Fée SUNDifferential | 3.55 | 11.31 | 7.09 | 0.59 |
| 7 | Szoboszlai LIV | 5.70 | 14.87 | 11.41 | 0.81 |
| 8 | Thiago BRE | 4.20 | 11.63 | 8.40 | 0.53 |
| 9 | Evanilson BOUDifferential | 4.39 | 12.31 | 8.78 | 0.73 |
| 10 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 3.89 | 11.57 | 7.78 | 0.65 |
| 11 | Shaw MUN | 3.50 | 7.46 | 7.00 | 0.78 |
| 12 | Sánchez CHEDifferentialBench | 2.85 | 6.30 | 5.70 | 0.57 |
| 13 | Tarkowski EVEDifferentialBench | 3.15 | 8.32 | 6.29 | 0.52 |
| 14 | Gibbs-White NFODifferentialBench | 2.26 | 8.96 | 4.52 | 0.28 |
| 15 | N.Williams NFODifferentialBench | 0.95 | 4.99 | 1.90 | 0.19 |
Bottom line
3-4-3, B.Fernandes (c), Szoboszlai vice — 55.96 projected with the armband applied.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/our-squad.json.