Two squads, picked before every deadline and graded after: one by a 50,000-run simulation, one by the crowd's template. Every number on this page is a projection you can check next week.
| Model XI | Consensus XI | Duel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW1 | 44proj 65.9 | 53proj 60.7 | 0–1 |
| GW2 | 93proj 56.0 | 84proj 53.0 | 1–1 |
| GW3 | 37proj 59.5 | 59proj 53.7 | 1–2 |
| GW4 | 76proj 69.6 | 83proj 53.6 | 1–3 |
| GW5live | 62.6proj | 52.7proj | 1–3 |
Official points once a gameweek is graded; the live row shows the frozen projection and points so far. Full ledger →
The players we actually field, from the squad we publish and grade in public every week.
Who the crowd is piling into, and what our model makes of each move.
Crowd is buying. Model has him tier A, 45th by xPts this week.
Crowd is buying. Model has him tier A, 65th by xPts this week.
Crowd is buying. Model has him tier S, 3rd by xPts this week.
Who is being dumped hardest. Where the model disagrees, it says so.
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date (status: i)
Crowd is selling. Model has him tier D, 543rd.
Crowd is selling. Model still has him tier S, 25th.
Crowd is selling. Model still has him tier S, 5th.
Fixture boxes under the dots: the next opponent, coloured by difficulty — green easy, red hard, dashed grey not priced yet.
Check your player — search all cards → · How we compare to the other models →
The engine's own 15 — a 3-4-3 projecting 62.63 points with the captain doubled, picked on six-gameweek horizon value, not one-week form.
Captain, transfers and chips from 3 public sources, each linked, beside our own squad. The sources lean Haaland; the model captains Cole Palmer.
16.05 captain EV, 17.06 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: Haaland blanks in 34% of them and scores double figures in 32%.
A mention-tally across the expert consensus sources, assembled into a legal 15 — Haaland carries the majority armband.
A legal 15 for 98.2m, with an XI projecting 65.3 points.
MCI project 0.47 expected clean sheets against SUN (H).
5.02 expected points, with 1.44 of it from clean sheets alone.
1.19 points per million at 5.6.
He clears the 10-action threshold in 54% of simulations.
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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table.