Haaland is the gameweek 3 captain
17.16 captain EV, 19.33 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
Haaland (MCI) projects 17.16 captained, off 8.58 expected points, with a ceiling of 19.33 — the average of his best 15% of simulations.
B.Fernandes is the alternative at 15.88. He kicks off later, so he works as a vice only if your captain's match is already done.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland MCI | 17.16 | 8.58 | 19.33 | 15.5 | 71.0% |
| 2 | B.Fernandes MUN | 15.88 | 7.94 | 17.41 | 12.0 | 48.6% |
| 3 | Szoboszlai LIV | 13.32 | 6.66 | 16.78 | 7.0 | 41.4% |
| 4 | Gakpo LIVDifferential | 11.20 | 5.60 | 15.31 | 7.0 | 8.1% |
| 5 | Saka ARS | 10.90 | 5.45 | 16.00 | 9.5 | 10.6% |
| 6 | Thiago BRE | 10.52 | 5.26 | 14.28 | 8.0 | 14.4% |
| 7 | Gibbs-White NFODifferential | 10.18 | 5.09 | 14.12 | 7.9 | 9.4% |
| 8 | Enzo MCIDifferential | 9.89 | 4.94 | 13.59 | 6.9 | 3.4% |
| 9 | Tavernier BOUDifferential | 9.06 | 4.53 | 13.55 | 6.0 | 2.3% |
| 10 | Mbeumo MUN | 8.90 | 4.45 | 13.02 | 8.0 | 29.6% |
| 11 | Guéhi MCI | 8.81 | 4.41 | 10.98 | 6.0 | 18.9% |
| 12 | Virgil LIV | 8.79 | 4.39 | 10.65 | 6.5 | 17.9% |
| 13 | O'Reilly MCI | 8.34 | 4.17 | 11.36 | 6.5 | 19.1% |
| 14 | M.Sangaré BRE | 8.29 | 4.14 | 10.55 | 5.7 | 13.4% |
| 15 | Scott BOUDifferential | 8.27 | 4.14 | 10.65 | 6.0 | 1.9% |
| 16 | Garner EVEDifferential | 8.27 | 4.14 | 9.35 | 6.0 | 0.1% |
| 17 | Semenyo MCI | 8.26 | 4.13 | 11.53 | 8.5 | 20.6% |
| 18 | Cherki MCI | 8.16 | 4.08 | 13.33 | 7.7 | 26.1% |
| 19 | Thiaw NEWDifferential | 7.97 | 3.98 | 11.53 | 5.0 | 2.0% |
| 20 | Yeremy CRYDifferential | 7.94 | 3.97 | 12.68 | 5.5 | 0.2% |
Bottom line
Captain Haaland — 17.16 is the highest doubled projection on the board.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw3/captains.json.