The consensus XI: the experts' gameweek 3 team
A mention-tally across the expert consensus sources, assembled into a legal 15 — Haaland carries the majority armband.
| Player | Club | Pts | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raya | ARS | 0 | to play — to play |
| Calafiori | ARS | 0 | to play — to play |
| O'Reilly | MCI | 0 | to play — to play |
| Shaw | MUN | 0 | to play — to play |
| Szoboszlai | LIV | 0 | to play — to play |
| Mbeumo | MUN | 0 | to play — to play |
| Tzolis | ARS | 0 | to play — to play |
| Rogers | CHE | 0 | to play — to play |
| Haaland | MCI | 0 (c) | to play — to play |
| João Pedro | CHE | 0 | to play — to play |
| Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 0 | to play — to play |
| Kinsky | TOT | (0) | to play — to play |
| Guéhi | MCI | (0) | to play — to play |
| Diop | IPS | (0) | to play — to play |
| Slater | HUL | (0) | to play — to play |
This squad follows the crowd on purpose. We tally which players the expert consensus sources keep naming, keep the names most lists agree on, and assemble them into a quota-, budget- and club-legal 15. The captain is the majority call, not ours: Haaland, with João Pedro as vice.
Its minutes come from sourced research notes rather than our engine — where the experts assert a starter, this squad believes them. The weekly gap between this team and our own squad measures exactly whose information about who actually plays is better.
Scored on our numbers, the 3-4-3 XI projects 45.10 points, 53.68 with the captain doubled. Both squads are published before every deadline and graded after it — the season scoreboard settles the argument.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 3.34 | 6.68 | 6.67 | 0.56 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 3.79 | 10.77 | 7.58 | 0.68 |
| 3 | O'Reilly MCI | 4.17 | 11.36 | 8.34 | 0.64 |
| 4 | Shaw MUN | 2.49 | 6.94 | 4.99 | 0.55 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 6.66 | 16.78 | 13.32 | 0.95 |
| 6 | Mbeumo MUN | 4.45 | 13.02 | 8.90 | 0.56 |
| 7 | Tzolis ARS | 1.62 | 6.46 | 3.23 | 0.25 |
| 8 | Rogers CHE | 2.70 | 8.10 | 5.39 | 0.36 |
| 9 | Haaland MCI | 8.58 | 19.33 | 17.16 | 0.55 |
| 10 | João Pedro CHE | 3.50 | 10.05 | 7.00 | 0.46 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 3.80 | 11.19 | 7.61 | 0.63 |
| 12 | Kinsky TOTBench | 2.86 | 6.92 | 5.72 | 0.64 |
| 13 | Guéhi MCIBench | 4.41 | 10.98 | 8.81 | 0.73 |
| 14 | Diop IPSBench | 2.05 | 6.93 | 4.09 | 0.51 |
| 15 | Slater HULDifferentialBench | 2.53 | 7.36 | 5.06 | 0.56 |
Bottom line
The crowd's 15: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 53.68 projected on our model's numbers.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw3/consensus-squad.json.