The Consensus XI: gameweek 3 comparator
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.
Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template from official ownership, greedily legalised under budget, position quotas and club cap; captain was the highest-owned premium. The GW1 expert mention-tally method was retired. Later weeks carry the held roster.
This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.
The 3-4-3 XI projects 45.10 points, 53.68 with the captain doubled.
Method description corrected 2026-10-13. Original forecast numbers, squad and archived prose remain unchanged.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 3.34 | 6.68 | 6.67 | 0.56 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 3.79 | 10.77 | 7.58 | 0.68 |
| 3 | O'Reilly MCI | 4.17 | 11.36 | 8.34 | 0.64 |
| 4 | Shaw MUN | 2.49 | 6.94 | 4.99 | 0.55 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 6.66 | 16.78 | 13.32 | 0.95 |
| 6 | Mbeumo MUN | 4.45 | 13.02 | 8.90 | 0.56 |
| 7 | Tzolis ARS | 1.62 | 6.46 | 3.23 | 0.25 |
| 8 | Rogers CHE | 2.70 | 8.10 | 5.39 | 0.36 |
| 9 | Haaland MCI | 8.58 | 19.33 | 17.16 | 0.55 |
| 10 | João Pedro CHE | 3.50 | 10.05 | 7.00 | 0.46 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 3.80 | 11.19 | 7.61 | 0.63 |
| 12 | Kinsky TOTBench | 2.86 | 6.92 | 5.72 | 0.64 |
| 13 | Guéhi MCIBench | 4.41 | 10.98 | 8.81 | 0.73 |
| 14 | Diop IPSBench | 2.05 | 6.93 | 4.09 | 0.51 |
| 15 | Slater HULDifferentialBench | 2.53 | 7.36 | 5.06 | 0.56 |
Bottom line
Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 53.68 projected on our model's numbers.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw3/consensus-squad.json.