Mukiele is the gameweek 3 DefCon banker
He clears the 10-action threshold in 77% of simulations.
Mukiele (SUN) records at least 10 defensive actions in 77% of our simulations, worth 1.54 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.
Zubimendi is next at 68% against a 12-action threshold.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 77% | 1.54 | 3.54 | 5.5 | 2.4% |
| 2 | Zubimendi ARSDifferential | 68% | 1.37 | 3.49 | 5.4 | 0.8% |
| 3 | Garner EVEDifferential | 59% | 1.18 | 4.14 | 6.0 | 0.1% |
| 4 | Egan HULDifferential | 58% | 1.16 | 2.91 | 4.0 | 4.5% |
| 5 | Stach LEEDifferential | 56% | 1.12 | 3.33 | 6.0 | 2.9% |
| 6 | M.Sangaré BRE | 53% | 1.06 | 4.14 | 5.7 | 13.4% |
| 7 | Anderson MCIDifferential | 48% | 0.96 | 3.93 | 6.4 | 5.2% |
| 8 | Muharemović LEEDifferential | 47% | 0.95 | 2.49 | 5.0 | 3.3% |
| 9 | Scott BOUDifferential | 47% | 0.93 | 4.14 | 6.0 | 1.9% |
| 10 | Richards CRYDifferential | 47% | 0.93 | 3.26 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 11 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 46% | 0.92 | 2.71 | 6.0 | 8.5% |
| 12 | Bruno G. ARSDifferential | 44% | 0.89 | 3.24 | 6.8 | 2.2% |
| 13 | J.Murphy NEWDifferential | 44% | 0.88 | 3.01 | 5.9 | 0.1% |
| 14 | Milenković NFODifferential | 44% | 0.87 | 3.46 | 5.5 | 1.7% |
| 15 | Hall NEWDifferential | 43% | 0.87 | 3.57 | 5.1 | 8.7% |
| 16 | Ajer BREDifferential | 43% | 0.86 | 2.74 | 4.5 | 4.9% |
| 17 | Damsgaard BREDifferential | 39% | 0.78 | 3.04 | 5.5 | 0.5% |
| 18 | Tarkowski EVE | 38% | 0.76 | 3.60 | 6.0 | 10.5% |
| 19 | Ndiaye MCI | 37% | 0.73 | 3.81 | 6.0 | 13.5% |
| 20 | Adams BOUDifferential | 37% | 0.73 | 1.94 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
Bottom line
Mukiele is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 77% of simulations.
Get the next round the moment odds drop
50,000 simulations per matchday — captains, EV and match predictions in your inbox before lock.
Double opt-in. No spam, no tracking. Unsubscribe anytime.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw3/defcon.json.