Our gameweek 3 squad: B.Fernandes captains a 3-4-3
The engine's own 15 — a 3-4-3 projecting 59.52 points with the captain doubled, picked on six-gameweek horizon value, not one-week form.
This is the team we actually field, and it stands or falls in public. The engine optimises expected points over a discounted six-gameweek horizon on market-implied scoring rates, so every pick is a horizon bet rather than a one-fixture spike. The XI lines up 3-4-3 and projects 51.58 points before the armband; with B.Fernandes doubled that becomes 59.52.
No Haaland, by conviction rather than oversight. At his price the model wants the budget spread across three lines, and we do not pay a premium for an ownership shield. If the crowd is right about him, the consensus XI on this site owns him and will collect the evidence.
Registered captain: B.Fernandes, with 15.88 projected points doubled. Registered vice: Szoboszlai, with 13.32 projected points doubled. The highest captain projection in this registered XI is B.Fernandes at 15.88. Registered roles and projection rankings are shown separately.
The bench, in order: 1. Sánchez, 2. E.Le Fée, 3. Shaw, 4. Senesi. It is deliberately thin — the first name is the backup keeper, and the spend sits in the XI where the points are.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 3.34 | 6.68 | 6.67 | 0.56 |
| 2 | Virgil LIV | 4.39 | 10.65 | 8.79 | 0.68 |
| 3 | Tarkowski EVE | 3.60 | 9.98 | 7.21 | 0.60 |
| 4 | B.Fernandes MUN | 7.94 | 17.41 | 15.88 | 0.66 |
| 5 | Ndiaye MCI | 3.81 | 11.11 | 7.63 | 0.64 |
| 6 | Gibbs-White NFODifferential | 5.09 | 14.12 | 10.18 | 0.64 |
| 7 | Szoboszlai LIV | 6.66 | 16.78 | 13.32 | 0.95 |
| 8 | Thiago BRE | 5.26 | 14.28 | 10.52 | 0.66 |
| 9 | Evanilson BOUDifferential | 3.76 | 11.35 | 7.51 | 0.63 |
| 10 | N.Williams NFODifferential | 3.93 | 10.14 | 7.85 | 0.79 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 3.80 | 11.19 | 7.61 | 0.63 |
| 12 | Sánchez CHEDifferentialBench | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 13 | E.Le Fée SUNDifferentialBench | 2.72 | 8.09 | 5.43 | 0.46 |
| 14 | Shaw MUNBench | 2.49 | 6.94 | 4.99 | 0.55 |
| 15 | Senesi TOTDifferentialBench | 1.72 | 7.56 | 3.45 | 0.29 |
Bottom line
3-4-3, B.Fernandes (c), Szoboszlai vice — 59.52 projected with the armband applied.
Get the next round the moment odds drop
50,000 simulations per matchday — captains, EV and match predictions in your inbox before lock.
Double opt-in. No spam, no tracking. Unsubscribe anytime.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw3/our-squad.json.