Haaland is the gameweek 5 captain
16.05 captain EV, 17.06 ceiling — the best armband in the model.
Haaland (MCI) projects 16.05 captained, off 8.02 expected points, with a ceiling of 17.06 — the average of his best 15% of simulations.
Saka is the alternative at 13.86. He kicks off first, so he is the safer vice.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland MCI | 16.05 | 8.02 | 17.06 | 15.5 | 72.7% |
| 2 | Saka ARS | 13.86 | 6.93 | 16.59 | 9.5 | 12.5% |
| 3 | Gibbs-White NFO | 13.80 | 6.90 | 16.75 | 8.0 | 13.3% |
| 4 | Barry EVEDifferential | 13.35 | 6.67 | 14.96 | 5.6 | 6.8% |
| 5 | B.Fernandes MUN | 13.08 | 6.54 | 16.25 | 12.0 | 41.2% |
| 6 | Cole Palmer CHE | 12.71 | 6.35 | 16.10 | 9.7 | 26.8% |
| 7 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 12.52 | 6.26 | 14.78 | 6.0 | 23.5% |
| 8 | Wissa NEW | 11.46 | 5.73 | 14.18 | 6.2 | 18.3% |
| 9 | Barnes NEWDifferential | 10.78 | 5.39 | 13.79 | 6.0 | 3.4% |
| 10 | Thiago BREDifferential | 10.62 | 5.31 | 13.90 | 7.9 | 9.3% |
| 11 | Mbeumo MUN | 10.20 | 5.10 | 13.75 | 7.9 | 22.4% |
| 12 | Hall NEW | 10.04 | 5.02 | 11.74 | 5.2 | 14.4% |
| 13 | Tavernier BOUDifferential | 9.94 | 4.97 | 12.88 | 6.1 | 5.8% |
| 14 | Guéhi MCI | 9.81 | 4.90 | 11.45 | 6.0 | 18.5% |
| 15 | N.Williams NFODifferential | 9.61 | 4.81 | 11.41 | 5.0 | 8.8% |
| 16 | Thiaw NEWDifferential | 9.56 | 4.78 | 11.90 | 5.0 | 2.2% |
| 17 | Tarkowski EVE | 9.32 | 4.66 | 11.03 | 6.1 | 13.6% |
| 18 | Gonzalo FULDifferential | 9.30 | 4.65 | 12.27 | 6.0 | 3.6% |
| 19 | Dewsbury-Hall EVEDifferential | 9.15 | 4.57 | 11.81 | 6.5 | 5.4% |
| 20 | Cherki MCI | 9.05 | 4.53 | 12.69 | 7.8 | 28.2% |
Bottom line
Captain Haaland — 16.05 is the highest doubled projection on the board.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw5/captains.json.