The consensus XI: the experts' gameweek 5 team
A mention-tally across the expert consensus sources, assembled into a legal 15 — Haaland carries the majority armband.
This squad follows the crowd on purpose. We tally which players the expert consensus sources keep naming, keep the names most lists agree on, and assemble them into a quota-, budget- and club-legal 15. The captain is the majority call, not ours: Haaland, with João Pedro as vice.
Its minutes come from sourced research notes rather than our engine — where the experts assert a starter, this squad believes them. The weekly gap between this team and our own squad measures exactly whose information about who actually plays is better.
Scored on our numbers, the 3-4-3 XI projects 44.68 points, 52.70 with the captain doubled. Both squads are published before every deadline and graded after it — the season scoreboard settles the argument.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 3.62 | 8.59 | 7.23 | 0.60 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 4.12 | 10.65 | 8.23 | 0.71 |
| 3 | O'Reilly MCI | 2.07 | 8.65 | 4.13 | 0.32 |
| 4 | Shaw MUNDifferential | 1.70 | 7.34 | 3.41 | 0.39 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 4.46 | 12.71 | 8.93 | 0.64 |
| 6 | Mbeumo MUN | 5.10 | 13.75 | 10.20 | 0.65 |
| 7 | Tzolis ARS | 2.37 | 7.27 | 4.74 | 0.37 |
| 8 | Rogers CHE | 3.89 | 10.53 | 7.77 | 0.51 |
| 9 | Haaland MCI | 8.02 | 17.06 | 16.05 | 0.52 |
| 10 | João Pedro CHE | 3.07 | 10.98 | 6.15 | 0.39 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 6.26 | 14.78 | 12.52 | 1.04 |
| 12 | Kinsky TOTBench | 3.37 | 8.88 | 6.74 | 0.75 |
| 13 | Guéhi MCIBench | 4.90 | 11.45 | 9.81 | 0.82 |
| 14 | Diop IPSBench | 2.65 | 8.43 | 5.31 | 0.66 |
| 15 | Slater HULDifferentialBench | 2.64 | 7.06 | 5.28 | 0.59 |
Bottom line
The crowd's 15: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 52.70 projected on our model's numbers.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw5/consensus-squad.json.