Egan is the gameweek 5 DefCon banker
He clears the 10-action threshold in 54% of simulations.
Egan (HUL) records at least 10 defensive actions in 54% of our simulations, worth 1.07 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.
Muharemović is next at 46% against a 10-action threshold.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egan HULDifferential | 54% | 1.07 | 2.85 | 4.1 | 6.9% |
| 2 | Muharemović LEEDifferential | 46% | 0.93 | 4.22 | 5.0 | 4.1% |
| 3 | Richards CRYDifferential | 41% | 0.82 | 3.43 | 5.0 | 0.6% |
| 4 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 39% | 0.79 | 2.35 | 5.4 | 2.0% |
| 5 | Janelt BREDifferential | 36% | 0.71 | 3.39 | 5.0 | 2.5% |
| 6 | Ajer BREDifferential | 35% | 0.70 | 2.86 | 4.5 | 4.2% |
| 7 | Murillo NFODifferential | 34% | 0.69 | 4.41 | 5.5 | 2.0% |
| 8 | Botman NEWDifferential | 34% | 0.69 | 4.45 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 9 | Khalaili CRYDifferential | 34% | 0.68 | 3.18 | 5.0 | 0.3% |
| 10 | Silva BOUDifferential | 33% | 0.67 | 3.21 | 5.0 | 0.4% |
| 11 | Tarkowski EVE | 33% | 0.66 | 4.66 | 6.1 | 13.6% |
| 12 | Branthwaite EVEDifferential | 33% | 0.65 | 3.91 | 5.5 | 2.2% |
| 13 | Bobby Thomas COVDifferential | 31% | 0.62 | 3.20 | 4.0 | 8.8% |
| 14 | Wesley Fofana CHEDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 2.69 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
| 15 | Truffert BOUDifferential | 30% | 0.61 | 3.16 | 5.5 | 3.2% |
| 16 | O'Shea IPSDifferential | 30% | 0.60 | 2.61 | 4.0 | 2.9% |
| 17 | Mainoo MUNDifferential | 29% | 0.58 | 2.72 | 5.5 | 1.6% |
| 18 | Scott BOUDifferential | 28% | 0.57 | 3.58 | 6.1 | 5.8% |
| 19 | Hall NEW | 28% | 0.55 | 5.02 | 5.2 | 14.4% |
| 20 | Anderson MCIDifferential | 27% | 0.55 | 3.73 | 6.3 | 4.2% |
Bottom line
Egan is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 54% of simulations.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw5/defcon.json.