Gabriel leads the gameweek 6 defenders
5.54 expected points, with 2.03 of it from clean sheets alone.
Gabriel (ARS) projects 5.54: 2.03 from clean sheets, 0.47 from defensive contribution and 0.51 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | CS pts | DefCon pts | Bonus | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel ARS | 5.54 | 2.03 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 8.0 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 5.08 | 2.01 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 5.9 |
| 3 | Tarkowski EVE | 4.62 | 1.40 | 0.76 | 0.40 | 6.2 |
| 4 | Raya ARS | 4.36 | 1.95 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 6.1 |
| 5 | De Cuyper BHA | 4.33 | 1.13 | 0.04 | 0.50 | 5.0 |
| 6 | Richards CRYDifferential | 4.33 | 1.11 | 0.84 | 0.43 | 4.9 |
| 7 | Hall NEW | 4.33 | 1.10 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 5.3 |
| 8 | Branthwaite EVEDifferential | 4.06 | 1.35 | 0.83 | 0.10 | 5.5 |
| 9 | Khalaili CRYDifferential | 4.04 | 0.95 | 0.66 | 0.30 | 5.0 |
| 10 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 4.01 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.36 | 5.4 |
| 11 | Botman NEWDifferential | 3.96 | 1.10 | 0.91 | 0.14 | 5.0 |
| 12 | Thiaw NEWDifferential | 3.92 | 1.10 | 0.55 | 0.13 | 5.0 |
| 13 | Davis IPSDifferential | 3.89 | 0.94 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 4.0 |
| 14 | Lammens MUNDifferential | 3.84 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 4.9 |
| 15 | Pickford EVEDifferential | 3.78 | 1.27 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 5.5 |
| 16 | Emiliano Martínez Romero CHEDifferential | 3.77 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 5.0 |
| 17 | Bobby Thomas COVDifferential | 3.75 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 4.0 |
| 18 | Murillo NFODifferential | 3.71 | 1.07 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 5.5 |
| 19 | Virgil LIV | 3.71 | 0.81 | 0.67 | 0.18 | 6.5 |
| 20 | Horníček NEWDifferential | 3.67 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 5.0 |
Bottom line
Gabriel at 8.0 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw6/defenders.json.