Haaland leads the board; Saka captains the proposed route
Haaland projects 8.63 ordinary points, Saka 7.02. Captaincy depends on ownership as well as the player ranking.
The ranking has not reversed
Haaland remains the highest projected captain option, subject to fitness and minutes after the PSG match. If already owned and available, the saved base model favours him. Saka is captain in the proposed Saka transfer plans because those squads do not own Haaland. The held website Model roster owns neither: its provisional captain is Thiago at 5.95, narrowly above Calvert-Lewin 5.90, Bruno 5.86 and Palmer 5.84. Treat that cluster as close, not decisive.
Buying Haaland was evaluated
Bruno, Gibbs-White and Thiago to Groß, Tavernier and Haaland uses all three transfers and all the assumed cash. The full portfolio gains 6.31 expected points immediately but 3.11 over five discounted weeks. A cautious minutes scenario reduces the immediate gain to 2.13. The tested route that buys both Haaland and Saka is £0.3m short. These are conditional website-roster calculations, not verified account affordability.
The armband does not settle the transfer plan
A higher individual projection does not establish that buying that player is the best multiweek use of three transfers. The comparison excludes saved-transfer option value, adaptive future moves and conditional vice-captain fallback. No chip is recommended provisionally; actual chip availability is unknown. Confirm Friday news before the 17 October 10:00 UTC deadline.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | xPts | Ceiling | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland MCI | 17.26 | 8.63 | 18.55 | 15.6 | 75.2% |
| 2 | Saka ARS | 14.04 | 7.02 | 16.71 | 9.6 | 16.7% |
| 3 | Gonzalo FULDifferential | 12.88 | 6.44 | 14.79 | 6.1 | 7.2% |
| 4 | Thiago BREDifferential | 11.90 | 5.95 | 14.35 | 7.8 | 9.2% |
| 5 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 11.80 | 5.90 | 14.18 | 6.0 | 22.6% |
| 6 | B.Fernandes MUN | 11.72 | 5.86 | 14.59 | 11.9 | 34.6% |
| 7 | Cole Palmer CHE | 11.68 | 5.84 | 14.82 | 9.7 | 25.3% |
| 8 | Groß BHA | 11.38 | 5.69 | 14.49 | 6.0 | 39.5% |
| 9 | Cherki MCI | 10.76 | 5.38 | 13.76 | 7.9 | 31.9% |
| 10 | De Cuyper BHA | 10.74 | 5.37 | 13.69 | 5.1 | 35.4% |
| 11 | Tavernier BOUDifferential | 10.47 | 5.24 | 13.01 | 6.1 | 7.3% |
| 12 | Wirtz LIVDifferential | 10.33 | 5.17 | 13.12 | 7.3 | 5.2% |
| 13 | Barry EVEDifferential | 10.29 | 5.15 | 12.99 | 5.7 | 8.7% |
| 14 | Van Hecke TOTDifferential | 10.19 | 5.10 | 12.23 | 4.9 | 6.3% |
| 15 | Sávio TOTDifferential | 9.65 | 4.82 | 13.62 | 6.5 | 0.7% |
| 16 | Mbeumo MUN | 9.61 | 4.81 | 12.72 | 7.9 | 19.9% |
| 17 | Gabriel ARS | 9.57 | 4.79 | 10.84 | 7.9 | 21.8% |
| 18 | Silva BOUDifferential | 9.50 | 4.75 | 11.43 | 5.0 | 0.6% |
| 19 | Calafiori ARS | 9.21 | 4.61 | 11.49 | 5.9 | 52.3% |
| 20 | Havertz ARSDifferential | 9.15 | 4.58 | 11.66 | 7.5 | 6.6% |
Bottom line
Get the next round the moment odds drop
50,000 simulations per matchday — captains, EV and match predictions in your inbox before lock.
Double opt-in. No spam, no tracking. Unsubscribe anytime.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/captains.json.