Gameweek 7 spreads: Haaland hauls 37% of the time
Every projection on this site is the average of tens of thousands of simulated gameweeks. This is the shape behind the average: Haaland blanks in 30% of them and scores double figures in 37%.
Haaland (MCI) projects 17.26 with the armband. Behind that one number: his floor is 1 point in the worst tenth of simulations, his single most likely score is 2, and his ceiling is 17 in the best tenth. He reaches double figures in 37% of simulations and returns two points or fewer in 30%.
Saka is the alternative at 14.04 captained, on a floor of 2 and a ceiling of 15. He outscores Haaland in 44% of simulated gameweeks. That comparison treats the two players as independent of each other. They are not: two attackers in the same match rise and fall together, and our simulation knows it even though this figure does not. Read it as the size of the gap, not as a settled number.
The floor and the ceiling belong to different players. Saka has the highest floor at 2 points, so he is the pick if a bad week would cost you rank. Haaland has the highest ceiling at 17, so he is the pick if you need to make ground. Saka blanks least often, in 26% of simulations.
The data
| # | Player | Captain EV | Floor | Median | Ceiling | Haul % | Blank % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haaland MCI | 17.26 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 37% | 30% |
| 2 | Saka ARS | 14.04 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 30% | 26% |
| 3 | Gonzalo FULDifferential | 12.88 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 22% | 44% |
| 4 | Thiago BREDifferential | 11.90 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 17% | 49% |
| 5 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 11.80 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 17% | 49% |
| 6 | B.Fernandes MUN | 11.72 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 25% | 41% |
| 7 | Cole Palmer CHE | 11.68 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 25% | 40% |
| 8 | Groß BHA | 11.38 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 22% | 36% |
Bottom line
Captain Haaland — 37% of simulations reach double figures, against a 30% chance of two points or fewer.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/distributions.json.