GW6 final: Model 41, Consensus 71
Official event finality is confirmed. The held website squads finished on 41 and 71, including autosubs, against a field average of 58.
Official capture on 14 October, 11:35 UTC confirms all ten GW6 fixtures final and the event both finished and data checked. The existing finality guard passed. Frozen pre-deadline forecasts have not changed.
What the published squads scored
Website Model 41, Consensus 71; field average 58. These include official autosubs and captain rules. The selected-XI-only totals were 39 and 63. Model received Le Fée's two points for Szoboszlai; Consensus received Guéhi's six and Diop's two for Szoboszlai and Tzolis. These are registered website portfolios, not verified user-account totals.
What the forecasts got wrong
Across the complete frozen board of 667 players, mean absolute error was 1.103 versus 1.176 for the archived official FPL projection. RMSE was 2.078. One week does not establish model superiority: the sample includes many non-playing players, and realized squad selection was a separate weakness. The 41-point portfolio is not excused by a lower full-board average error.
No missing four-arm or external GW6 benchmark was reconstructed retrospectively. The original forecast artifact and capture time remain intact; the final grade is an outcome record. See the accuracy ledger, full GW6 grading data and archived GW6 pages.
What changes for GW7
We compare whole legal portfolios, account for selling-price profit rules, distinguish held rosters from hypothetical transfers and separate the highest projected captain from affordable ownership. No forecasting parameter was retuned to make GW6 look better. The provisional GW7 plan keeps late fitness, actual finances and saved transfers visible before Friday decisions.
The data
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Bottom line
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw7/research.json.