The Consensus XI: gameweek 2 comparator
The recorded comparator squad — Haaland captains, João Pedro is vice.
Rebuilt for gameweek 2 as the most-owned legal template from official ownership, greedily legalised under budget, position quotas and club cap; captain was the highest-owned premium. The GW1 expert mention-tally method was retired. Later weeks carry the held roster.
This is the held comparator roster, not a fresh poll of expert teams. Both squads use the same forecast model for expected points and minutes. Their realized score gap combines player selection, captaincy, chips and football variance; it does not isolate information quality.
The 3-4-3 XI projects 46.39 points, 52.97 with the captain doubled.
Method description corrected 2026-10-13. Original forecast numbers, squad and archived prose remain unchanged.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | Ceiling | Captain EV | Pts/m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raya ARS | 3.68 | 7.29 | 7.35 | 0.61 |
| 2 | Calafiori ARS | 4.36 | 11.39 | 8.73 | 0.78 |
| 3 | O'Reilly MCI | 3.36 | 9.91 | 6.72 | 0.52 |
| 4 | Shaw MUN | 3.50 | 7.46 | 7.00 | 0.78 |
| 5 | Szoboszlai LIV | 5.70 | 14.87 | 11.41 | 0.81 |
| 6 | Mbeumo MUN | 4.84 | 14.10 | 9.69 | 0.60 |
| 7 | Tzolis ARS | 3.07 | 9.59 | 6.14 | 0.47 |
| 8 | Rogers CHE | 3.27 | 9.14 | 6.54 | 0.44 |
| 9 | Haaland MCI | 6.58 | 16.58 | 13.16 | 0.42 |
| 10 | João Pedro CHE | 4.14 | 11.00 | 8.28 | 0.54 |
| 11 | Calvert-Lewin LEE | 3.89 | 11.57 | 7.78 | 0.65 |
| 12 | Kinsky TOTBench | 3.10 | 7.65 | 6.21 | 0.69 |
| 13 | Guéhi MCIBench | 4.40 | 11.01 | 8.80 | 0.73 |
| 14 | Diop IPSBench | 1.55 | 6.16 | 3.10 | 0.39 |
| 15 | Slater HULDifferentialBench | 3.03 | 9.55 | 6.05 | 0.67 |
Bottom line
Comparator: 3-4-3, Haaland (c) — 52.97 projected on our model's numbers.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/consensus-squad.json.