Thiaw is the gameweek 2 DefCon banker
He clears the 10-action threshold in 74% of simulations.
Thiaw (NEW) records at least 10 defensive actions in 74% of our simulations, worth 1.48 on its own. Defensive contribution is a threshold, not a rate: a player either clears the count in a given match or earns nothing, which is why we quote the hit rate rather than an average.
Neto is next at 74% against a 12-action threshold.
The data
| # | Player | P(DefCon) | DefCon pts | xPts | Price | Owned % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiaw NEWDifferential | 74% | 1.48 | 4.13 | 5.0 | 1.7% |
| 2 | Neto CHEDifferential | 74% | 1.47 | 4.97 | 6.5 | 1.3% |
| 3 | Yarmoliuk BREDifferential | 73% | 1.46 | 3.08 | 5.0 | 1.2% |
| 4 | Richards CRYDifferential | 73% | 1.45 | 3.17 | 5.0 | 0.7% |
| 5 | Dalot MUNDifferential | 72% | 1.44 | 6.03 | 5.0 | 2.5% |
| 6 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 59% | 1.19 | 3.85 | 6.0 | 9.5% |
| 7 | Damsgaard BREDifferential | 59% | 1.18 | 3.45 | 5.5 | 0.5% |
| 8 | Virgil LIV | 56% | 1.12 | 4.97 | 6.5 | 19.6% |
| 9 | Stach LEEDifferential | 55% | 1.10 | 3.76 | 6.0 | 2.0% |
| 10 | Senesi TOTDifferential | 55% | 1.10 | 3.09 | 6.0 | 7.8% |
| 11 | Murillo NFODifferential | 52% | 1.04 | 2.22 | 5.5 | 1.7% |
| 12 | M.Sangaré BREDifferential | 52% | 1.04 | 4.74 | 5.6 | 7.5% |
| 13 | Egan HULDifferential | 51% | 1.02 | 2.72 | 4.0 | 2.0% |
| 14 | Ampadu LEEDifferential | 49% | 0.99 | 3.11 | 5.5 | 1.4% |
| 15 | O'Shea IPSDifferential | 49% | 0.99 | 1.94 | 4.0 | 3.4% |
| 16 | Wharton CRYDifferential | 48% | 0.96 | 3.17 | 5.5 | 0.9% |
| 17 | Brennan Johnson EVEDifferential | 48% | 0.95 | 2.71 | 6.0 | 0.2% |
| 18 | Xhaka SUNDifferential | 46% | 0.93 | 4.10 | 5.5 | 4.6% |
| 19 | Gravenberch LIVDifferential | 46% | 0.91 | 3.89 | 6.0 | 2.0% |
| 20 | Adams BOUDifferential | 45% | 0.91 | 2.12 | 5.0 | 0.2% |
Bottom line
Thiaw is the most reliable route to the 2-point defensive bonus — 74% of simulations.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/defcon.json.