Virgil leads the gameweek 2 defenders
5.07 expected points, with 1.50 of it from clean sheets alone.
Virgil (LIV) projects 5.07: 1.50 from clean sheets, 0.74 from defensive contribution and 0.31 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | CS pts | DefCon pts | Bonus | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virgil LIV | 5.07 | 1.50 | 0.74 | 0.31 | 6.5 |
| 2 | Senesi TOTDifferential | 4.56 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 0.33 | 6.0 |
| 3 | Truffert BOUDifferential | 4.27 | 1.25 | 0.46 | 0.38 | 5.5 |
| 4 | Gabriel ARS | 4.26 | 1.33 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 8.0 |
| 5 | Calafiori ARS | 4.15 | 1.41 | 0.06 | 0.34 | 5.5 |
| 6 | Van Hecke TOT | 4.13 | 0.97 | 0.62 | 0.31 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Guéhi MCI | 4.10 | 1.31 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 6.0 |
| 8 | Raya ARS | 3.95 | 1.64 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 6.0 |
| 9 | De Cuyper BHADifferential | 3.90 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 4.5 |
| 10 | Mosquera ARSDifferential | 3.83 | 1.52 | 0.52 | 0.14 | 5.5 |
| 11 | Maguire MUN | 3.81 | 1.43 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 5.0 |
| 12 | Tarkowski EVEDifferential | 3.74 | 0.80 | 0.92 | 0.25 | 6.0 |
| 13 | Mukiele SUNDifferential | 3.74 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 5.5 |
| 14 | Shaw MUN | 3.73 | 1.61 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 4.5 |
| 15 | O'Reilly MCI | 3.71 | 1.11 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 6.5 |
| 16 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 3.66 | 1.06 | 0.96 | 0.09 | 6.0 |
| 17 | Petrović BOUDifferential | 3.58 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 4.5 |
| 18 | Andersen FULDifferential | 3.56 | 0.90 | 0.80 | 0.11 | 5.0 |
| 19 | Roefs SUNDifferential | 3.45 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 5.0 |
| 20 | Thiaw NEWDifferential | 3.43 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.16 | 5.0 |
Bottom line
Virgil at 6.5 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.
Get the next round the moment odds drop
50,000 simulations per matchday — captains, EV and match predictions in your inbox before lock.
Double opt-in. No spam, no tracking. Unsubscribe anytime.
How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/defenders.json.