Dalot leads the gameweek 2 defenders
6.03 expected points, with 1.20 of it from clean sheets alone.
Dalot (MUN) projects 6.03: 1.20 from clean sheets, 1.44 from defensive contribution and 2.37 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.
The data
| # | Player | xPts | CS pts | DefCon pts | Bonus | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dalot MUNDifferential | 6.03 | 1.20 | 1.44 | 2.37 | 5.0 |
| 2 | Virgil LIV | 4.97 | 1.42 | 1.12 | 0.06 | 6.5 |
| 3 | Guéhi MCI | 4.40 | 1.21 | 0.01 | 1.16 | 6.0 |
| 4 | Calafiori ARS | 4.36 | 1.41 | 0.06 | 0.68 | 5.6 |
| 5 | De Cuyper BHADifferential | 4.20 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 0.87 | 4.6 |
| 6 | Thiaw NEWDifferential | 4.13 | 0.66 | 1.48 | 0.03 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Lacroix CHEDifferential | 3.85 | 1.07 | 1.19 | 0.03 | 6.0 |
| 8 | Raya ARS | 3.68 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 6.0 |
| 9 | Kayode BREDifferential | 3.58 | 0.93 | 0.03 | 1.04 | 4.6 |
| 10 | Truffert BOUDifferential | 3.57 | 1.22 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 5.5 |
| 11 | Van Hecke TOTDifferential | 3.55 | 0.89 | 0.63 | 0.02 | 5.0 |
| 12 | Mosquera ARSDifferential | 3.53 | 1.52 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 5.5 |
| 13 | Shaw MUN | 3.50 | 1.57 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 4.5 |
| 14 | Maguire MUN | 3.45 | 1.45 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 5.0 |
| 15 | O'Reilly MCI | 3.36 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 6.5 |
| 16 | Kelleher BREDifferential | 3.36 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 5.0 |
| 17 | Andersen FULDifferential | 3.23 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.01 | 5.0 |
| 18 | Petrović BOUDifferential | 3.19 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.5 |
| 19 | Hume SUNDifferential | 3.19 | 1.01 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 4.5 |
| 20 | Richards CRYDifferential | 3.17 | 0.46 | 1.45 | 0.08 | 5.0 |
Bottom line
Dalot at 5.0 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.
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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/defenders.json.