Defenders · Gameweek 2
GameweeksGW1GW2

Virgil leads the gameweek 2 defenders

5.07 expected points, with 1.50 of it from clean sheets alone.

eBy the evmax model · 25 August 2026

Virgil (LIV) projects 5.07: 1.50 from clean sheets, 0.74 from defensive contribution and 0.31 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.

Virgil5.07 → 11.79Senesi4.56 → 11.55Truffert4.27 → 10.43Gabriel4.26 → 11.27Calafiori4.15 → 11.30Hecke4.13 → 11.08Guéhi4.10 → 10.39Raya3.95 → 8.03Cuyper3.90 → 12.11Mosquera3.83 → 8.63solid = xPts · faint = ceiling upside
Top 10 by xPts. Green = top pick · red = under 10% owned. Full list in the table below. Solid bar = xPts, faint bar = ceiling. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap.

The data

#PlayerxPtsCS ptsDefCon ptsBonusPrice
1Virgil LIV5.071.500.740.316.5
2Senesi TOTDifferential4.560.931.070.336.0
3Truffert BOUDifferential4.271.250.460.385.5
4Gabriel ARS4.261.330.550.738.0
5Calafiori ARS4.151.410.060.345.5
6Van Hecke TOT4.130.970.620.315.0
7Guéhi MCI4.101.310.420.276.0
8Raya ARS3.951.640.000.306.0
9De Cuyper BHADifferential3.900.640.020.494.5
10Mosquera ARSDifferential3.831.520.520.145.5
11Maguire MUN3.811.430.420.245.0
12Tarkowski EVEDifferential3.740.800.920.256.0
13Mukiele SUNDifferential3.741.000.500.345.5
14Shaw MUN3.731.610.160.044.5
15O'Reilly MCI3.711.110.110.296.5
16Lacroix CHEDifferential3.661.060.960.096.0
17Petrović BOUDifferential3.581.250.000.294.5
18Andersen FULDifferential3.560.900.800.115.0
19Roefs SUNDifferential3.451.100.000.505.0
20Thiaw NEWDifferential3.430.680.570.165.0

Bottom line

Virgil at 6.5 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.

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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw2/defenders.json.