Defenders · Gameweek 5

Hall leads the gameweek 5 defenders

5.02 expected points, with 1.44 of it from clean sheets alone.

eBy the evmax model · 17 September 2026

Hall (NEW) projects 5.02: 1.44 from clean sheets, 0.55 from defensive contribution and 0.64 from bonus. Where a defender's points come from matters as much as the total — a clean-sheet projection lives or dies on one fixture, while defensive contribution pays regardless of the scoreline.

Hall5.02 → 11.74Guéhi4.90 → 11.45N.Williams4.81 → 11.41Thiaw4.78 → 11.90Tarkowski4.66 → 11.03Gvardiol4.52 → 10.76Gabriel4.46 → 10.64Botman4.45 → 10.25Murillo4.41 → 9.90Hecke4.26 → 10.73solid = xPts · faint = ceiling upside
Top 10 by xPts. Green = top pick · red = under 10% owned. Full list in the table below. Solid bar = xPts, faint bar = ceiling. Ceiling = the average of a player's best 15% of our 50,000 simulations — the score when his best realistic games happen, not a fantasy cap.

The data

#PlayerxPtsCS ptsDefCon ptsBonusPrice
1Hall NEW5.021.440.550.645.2
2Guéhi MCI4.901.800.240.516.0
3N.Williams NFODifferential4.811.570.290.485.0
4Thiaw NEWDifferential4.781.470.440.195.0
5Tarkowski EVE4.661.410.660.406.1
6Gvardiol MCI4.521.750.210.445.7
7Gabriel ARS4.461.480.420.328.0
8Botman NEWDifferential4.451.450.690.175.0
9Murillo NFODifferential4.411.550.690.295.5
10Van Hecke TOTDifferential4.261.280.480.344.9
11Muharemović LEEDifferential4.221.280.930.335.0
12Calafiori ARS4.121.470.050.165.8
13Justin LEEDifferential4.061.300.490.254.5
14Bogle LEEDifferential4.021.350.110.274.5
15Donnarumma MCIDifferential4.021.720.000.455.5
16Mykolenko EVEDifferential4.011.400.460.314.5
17Horníček NEWDifferential4.011.300.000.655.0
18Branthwaite EVEDifferential3.911.320.650.125.5
19Rúben MCIDifferential3.851.750.170.155.5
20Aina NFODifferential3.841.530.240.164.5

Bottom line

Hall at 5.2 is the defensive pick of the gameweek.

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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official Fantasy Premier League points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/fpl/gw5/defenders.json.