Fixtures · Round 5

Fixture guide: clean sheets and blowouts for Round 5

France rate highest for a clean sheet at 59% vs Paraguay.

eBy the evmax model · 4 July 2026
France59.10Argentina55.00Morocco43.30Colombia36.30England34.10Spain34.10Brazil33.70Mexico29.10Switzerland27.10States24.20Belgium23.80Canada20.50Portugal19.20Norway17.30Egypt13.80Paraguay8.00

France carry the best clean-sheet odds this round at 59% vs Paraguay, conceding just 0.53 expected goals. Argentina are next at 55% vs Egypt.

Target attackers in the blowout fixtures — France vs Paraguay, Paraguay vs France, each projecting 2.51+ goals for.

The data

#PlayerCS %xGAxGFBest DEFBest GK
1France vs ParaguayBlowout59%0.532.51Dayot Upamecano (5.0)Mike Maignan (5.0)
2Argentina vs Egypt55%0.601.98Cristian Romero (3.8)Emiliano Martinez (4.8)
3Morocco vs Canada43%0.831.57Achraf Hakimi (5.0)Yassine 'Bono' Bounou (4.3)
4Colombia vs Switzerland36%1.021.31Jhon Lucumi (3.5)Vargas (3.4)
5England vs Mexico34%1.081.24Ezri Konsa (3.1)Jordan Pickford (3.8)
6Spain vs Portugal34%1.071.64Aymeric Laporte (3.2)Unai Simon (3.8)
7Brazil vs Norway34%1.091.77Gabriel Magalhães (3.5)Alisson Becker (3.7)
8Mexico vs England29%1.241.08Cesar Montes (2.7)Rangel (3.1)
9Switzerland vs Colombia27%1.311.02R. Rodriguez (2.8)Gregor Kobel (3.1)
10United States vs Belgium24%1.421.44Chris Richards (2.4)Matt Freese (2.9)
11Belgium vs United States24%1.441.42Maxim De Cuyper (2.9)Thibaut Courtois (3.2)
12Canada vs Morocco20%1.570.83Richie Laryea (2.2)Maxime Crepeau (3.0)
13Portugal vs Spain19%1.641.07Nuno Mendes (2.4)Diogo Costa (2.9)
14Norway vs Brazil17%1.771.09David Møller Wolfe (1.6)Ørjan Nyland (2.2)
15Egypt vs Argentina14%1.980.60Mohamed Hany (1.5)Mostafa Oufa Shobeir (2.5)
16Paraguay vs FranceBlowout8%2.510.53Gustavo Gomez (0.8)Orlando Gill (1.9)

Bottom line

Back France for a clean sheet (59% vs Paraguay), target attackers in the blowouts, and fade forwards in the low-goal fixtures.

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How we get these numbers. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table. Every figure here is machine-readable at /api/round/5/fixtures.json.