England's forward projects 10.05 captain EV with the safest floor-to-ceiling ratio among premium forwards.
Two fixtures, two stories: a coin-flip thriller and a home-team edge in expected goals.
Spain rate highest for a clean sheet at 36% vs Argentina.
Spain's goalkeeper ranks first because his team is likely to advance. That changes everything.
The strongest starting XI is a 4-3-3 projecting 39.76 xPts, wrapped in a 99.5m legal 15.
Spain's elite centre-back projects 3.28 xPts with a 3.28 ceiling and the best points-per-million ratio among all defenders.
Spain's midfielder projects 3.16 xPts with an 8.42 ceiling and sits at just 1.9% ownership.
England's goalkeeper delivers the highest points per million in the dataset, with best-value picks across all three price tiers identified.
Lionel Messi is the top transfer target at 4.80 xPts from a blowout fixture.
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Method. Market odds (de-vigged) → Dixon-Coles scorelines → 50k Monte-Carlo simulations, scored on the official FIFA World Cup Fantasy points table.